Communication breakdown, its always the same...
Thanks to you
I'm much obliged
for such a pleasant stay
but now its time for me to go
the autumn moon lights my way
and now i smell the rain
and with it pain
and its heading my way...
Led Zepplin
This is going to ramble on...
The NYT Circuits Diary on blog abandonment from that Perseus Study we blogged about (old media sustains memes too).
New: active blogs count:
Mr. Henning provided a number not released as part of the study: the growth in active blogs, rather than abandoned ones. Last year there were 1.62 million active blogs, according to Perseus's research. This year that number is expected to rise to 3.3 million. In 2004, Mr. Henning predicts, the figure will rise to 5.86 million. That's a number worth talking about.
Clay on blog churn:
Clay Shirky, an adjunct assistant professor in the Interactive Telecommunications Program at New York University, said it was important to discuss the half-life of blogs even though the "numbers are threatening to some people." Referring to blog dropouts, he added, "The truth is, a churn rate of less than 80 percent on a technology growing this fast is very, very good."...
The only way to take churn out of growth is to increase the risk of the customer, which puts reputation at stake and decreases growth.
The reasons for blog churn lie somewhere between:
* low switching costs
* high transaction costs for some who face real world pressure (time)
* low transaction costs who don't have the time burden, or
* utility of networks (some have their work relate to public facing blogging, social feedback, support networks)
So you squish the well curve by through network time sharing and augmenting real lives to give time back:
In the past quarter-century we've added 200 hours to our annual work schedule -- five more weeks...Given the choice, about 50 percent of people say would give up some pay for more personal time...Research consistently demonstrates that, over time, total productivity is the same, whether you work 40 or 50 hours per week.
Counter to demand is email supply: Research indicates that employees using wireless email will have put in an extra 55 minutes of work per day.
Which brings me to Joi's space map. Time is saved in a social context. The spectrum is from media companies (content) to communications, when it should be from content (control with closed property) to social context (commons with control over privacy). Plot companies within tools and services. Drop the stack, at least the OSI Networking model made sense. At risk of 2x2 mgmt consultant analysis, add the dimension of synchronicity. Then step back and visualize the value of asynch, context and feedback to our time.
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