Ross Mayfield's Weblog

MSN Spaces Launch

Mary Jo Foley notes Microsoft's foray into blogging is due to launch this week, MSN Spaces:

Some users have been speculating that  MSN will allow users to post to their blogs via MSN Messenger 7, the latest version of Microsoft's consumer instant-messaging client, which is in beta now and due to ship in early 2005.

In August, MSN launched a beta version of its blogging tool for the Japanese market only. At that time, MSN officials declined to discuss when and if they planned to broaden the beta to other countries. MSN officials said they considered the MSN Spaces beta as "an incubation project."

Other blogging vendors will thank them for introducing their users to blogging, otherwise not that much will change.

Update: Launched.  Here's my demo space.  Its like AOL Journals with lock-in, but a good fit if you use all of the following: Passport, IE, MSN Messenger, Hotmail, Windows Media Player.  Trackbacks are on by default, pointing to other MSN Spaces.  More private groups require Passport or MSN Messenger membership for all.  Public use demands the latest IE from your readers.  All the features invented elsewhere, and its still not easy enough to use.  I think this is all fair to say, pains me to say it as there are people behind it.  But watch this space.

Even More: This post was the first ranking for "MSN Spaces" during launch on Google and MSN search.  Indexes have churned since then, but event people are here for something definative, the ongoing saga is one of censorship.  Read this and that.

e-Tailing Fakesters

I have to say the most amusing thing over the past few days are the faux-items on Target and Amazon  (reviews are a must-read).  This could be viewed as half-baked incursions by disgruntled engineers, a PR Crisis, or an opportunity.  Are these not the Fakesters of retail?

I'm only partially kidding.  If e-Tailers could enclose user-created faux-goods in a category that side-steps decency issues, these hacks would have commercial purpose.  More people-centric commerce sites like craigslist already get this benefit, and their community is all the richer.  This is but a pipe dream, as decency is an issue of the day and trusting your customers is alien to the enterprise.

Plato's Cave and Copernican Constellations

I generally find from conversations that there are those who believe innovation stems from core teams under pressure and those who think it spawns from loosely connected networks. These are very different views of the universe, beyond how it may change. One is Ptolemaic, revolving around a person or team. One is Copernican, recognizing it doesn't revolve around your organization. More on the greeks later, for now lets turn to what's new in the daily dish, according to some network surveyors of Ivy affiliation:

Fleming and his colleagues found, for example, that at the end of the last decade, half of the patented inventors in Silicon Valley could trace an indirect collaborative path to one another...

"Our work and more recent work on knowledge diffusion demonstrates that knowledge flows along these collaborative relationships, even years after they were formed," says Fleming. At the same time, the world of inventors "is getting smaller," he says, "inventors are more connected to their colleagues in outside firms, and that knowledge is diffusing in both directions."

Fleming uses the analogy of a cave to describe network clusters, which reminds me of Plato's cave -- where your reality is what you perceive, or what you perceive could just be a reflection of what's outside the cave you are trapped in unknowingly. In other words, its more than fine to be trapped in an echo chamber so long as you realize you are in one, the acoustics can't be beat.

Valdis Krebs taught me something simple that works two years ago. That a healthy network has both a densely linked core and a dynamic edge. New ideas have to reach the network and then have an efficient means of processing it. Formulated memes need means.

A big part of my Copernican Universe for this post is from the Guardian's Simon Walderman:

The real danger for newspapers - and indeed all traditional media - when venturing online, isn’t these detailed questions about who charges for what, or what an individual site’s impact is on an individual publication. It’s that the media owner involved fails to understand their role in the online universe, and fundamentally fails as a result of it.

But its late, and the Earth has already revolved in Simon's favor. So, to make sure I have the right three old greeks, I'll beg a question.

I'll assume you feel your world is getting smaller, what have you done to make it bigger today?

Pro-Am

Since I haven't been blogging about blogging enough lately, allow me to share Alex Pang's comments on Pro-Ams -- people pursuing amateur activities to professional standards -- which is covered in a British think tank report:

In the past few years, we've seen a number of claims that new technologies or technology-enabled phenomena are leveling the playing field between professionals and amateurs. The interpretation of blogging, and in particular of political blogging, as a bottom-up response to professional journalism is but the latest incarnation of this trend-- though it's interesting to note that this is an occasion in which the term "professional" is used as an epithet: it's right up there with "elitist." (I've also written about blogging and the Victorian concept of the amateur here.)

Perhaps the civility that Anil is complaining about calling for, is setting Pro-Am standards.  Or maybe it just wanting to live in a good neighborhood.

EContent 100

Socialtext made the EContent 100.  You have to love awards that don't accept applications or bribes.

Exporting American Democracy

America may no longer lead the world in its practice of democracy, but it is exporting a template of democratic opposition.  The Gaurdian has a fascinating article on a US-backed pro-democracy civil disobedience group:

But while the gains of the orange-bedecked "chestnut revolution" are Ukraine's, the campaign is an American creation, a sophisticated and brilliantly conceived exercise in western branding and mass marketing that, in four countries in four years, has been used to try to salvage rigged elections and topple unsavoury regimes.

Funded and organised by the US government, deploying US consultancies, pollsters, diplomats, the two big American parties and US non-government organisations, the campaign was first used in Europe in Belgrade in 2000 to beat Slobodan Milosevic at the ballot box.

The US Government spent $41m on Milosevic and $14m so far in Ukraine.  You might recall what the Right dubbed Chinagate, when Clinton was indirectly linked to campaign contributions from the Chinese government -- viewed by many as an infringement upon sovereignty.  Personally, I believe sovereignty is an outdated nation-state concept in an interdependent world -- with some very big caveats: transparency, rule of law and influence is only through the democratic process.

If campaign practices developed by the Dean Movement could be exported to emerging democracies, it would be a very good thing.  Not that its too late to save our own democracy.

Wifi iPod

UPDATE: Two years later, in January 2006, the iPhone was launched.  Wifi included, and much more. Development took 2 1/2 years so I failed to predict both the development and launch.  This should reshape another industry, if it opens up unlike prior mobile platforms.

My Netgear hotspot crapped out on me prompting a new purchase.  My Airport Express proved its worth while traveling, even serving as the emergency hotspot for a conference without wifi, but it lacks an out port for my LAN.  When faced with the choice of new base stations, I must admit I went with the Airport Extreme Base Station -- because of their proprietary network overlays to extend range, print and play music.

I had tried to extend the range of my non-Apple base station with the Airport Express to no avail.  Was worth the premium I paid to do so, and now I have extended range from the base station while playing iTunes to my stereo in the other room via Airport Express.

Apple's network effects work so well I am a hooked worm and want more.  Russell thinks podcasting will move to mobile phones.  Not that he is wrong, but Apple will not develop a phone.  But I will eat my hat if they don't offer a wifi-enabled iPod to let you play directly to your Airport Express. You can sort of do this today, and there are hotspot directories you can load on the iPod plaform.  Others bet this will happen too, but as a new-fangled remote.

Podjacking beyond FM will likely ensue.  Like TV-B-Gone and bluejacking for bad music.

Update: Russell creatively thinks Apple will launch iPhone, but, again, they have network platform effects in wifi, so I would bet the above comes first.  That is, until smart radios are a commodity and the software value add is a user experience of bridging networks.

Hacking the Phone Platform

Douglas Ruskoff picks up the vision of phones as hackable platforms from the director and head of user experience at Nokia's Insight and Foresight unit, Marko Ahtisaari in a recent talk.  First, on the need to innovate:

"What have we had? We've had mobile voice, which was the lead application and still is the lead application. Texting, person-to-person, one-to-one messaging. And, recently, the only dominant functionality that we've added is the camera. We need new innovation on this platform for it to grow."

Second, how the most promising and compelling software innovations have always been born in the hands of playful users.

Third, on phones, like the internet, innovation springs from the bottom-up where the platform is open.  SMS began as a signaling technology (Basically, a text-based way of saying "you've got mail.") adapted for mainstream communication by users themselves.

The boom of what Ahtisaari calls "personalization hacks" followed much the same path. The industry certainly hadn't predicted such boundless enthusiasm for sounds, graphics and themes but quickly capitalized on the excitement once they realized, as Ahtisaari explains, that "personalization has an intense value and people are willing to pay for it." Ringtones are the most promising form of content to emerge this way so far; users now pay up to three dollars for a ringtone compared to 99 cents for the entire actual song from which it was derived. It's the kind of phenomenon that is essentially unpredictable and would seem absurd to any business development department. In terms of social currency, however, it makes absolute sense: a ringtone is a way of sharing music instead of simply listening to it. But such observations are a lot easier to make in hindsight, once the user base has gone ahead and hacked their way to the most sensible and creative applications of the technology we've sold them.

Ahtisaari seems to be at pains to remind an industry now gloating about the profitability of ringtones that they really began as a hack. It was back in July of 1999 that a 23-year-old British phone hacker realized how a feature on Nokia handsets allowing companies to create tones and graphics could be hacked by users to add their own ringtones. Once the industry caught on and created easier ways for everyday users to exploit the same code as the hacker community, the market surged from fringe to mainstream in less than a year.

This is outsourcing through openness the model of innovation that Howard Rheingold suggests for transforming users into developers.

...If I was a Nokia or a Hewlett-Packard, I would take a fraction of what I’m spending on those buildings full of expensive people and give out a whole bunch of prototypes to a whole bunch of 15-year-olds and have contracts with them where you can observe their behavior in an ethical way and enable them to suggest innovations, and give them some reasonable small reward for that. And once in a while, you’re going to make a billion dollars off it.

Douglas points out that most hacks are not in the commercial interest of the platform, but the reward of tapping into the bottom-up outweights the risks.  The challenge for the marketing function then becomes managing middlespace.  What innovations in, and that serve, the longtail should be developed for the mainstream?  Sometimes the adoption pattern's momentum will make these investment decisions clearer.  Sometimes it takes an understanding of the portfolio of options, both of diversity and combinations over time, to see potential.  But this is managing emergence, for which there is barely a practice and where attempting to manage instead of sensitively lead can be folly.

Mass customization used to be a way to divide the spoils of the late majority at significant risk and cost.  Platform architecture that mattered less when optimized for the tornado of growth that proceeded it was essential for economies of scope.  Now the cost for open network effects has fallen for a new interplay between the long tail and TLC.  Mass customization and personalization is so valuable that users as developers take it on themselves.  A product splinters into a thousand derivatives along the long tail.  Each new one proceeds along its own technology adoption lifecycle, and the challenge for the platform owner is which to accelerate.  Each is an option, where the option didn't exist before.

Weeds and Gardens

Dolby: "It seems like such a simple idea. I wonder why the guys at Napster didn't think about this. They never really got around to implementing any fair payment mechanism."

WorldChanging, Jeremy Faludi, in full:

Finally, non-pirate peer-to-peer file-sharing systems exist.  Weed, perhaps the best, has been designed to both encourage wide/easy distribution of music and provide artists with the money they're due, by having a file format that allows a downloaded song to be played three times for free and then requires payment for that song. It also gives prolific aficionados kickbacks: if someone else buys a song they downloaded from you, you get a percent of the proceeds. Most titles are about $1, but it varies--Weed says "The artist decides what to charge". According to Wired, Weed only keeps 15% of the song price; however, they don't need to make much money per file, because they outsource their infrastructure to their users. Such outsourcing to the end-user is an important Worldchanging trend that we'll see more of in the future.  Other legally-paying P2P networks are AltNet and soon-to-be-launched Peer Impact.

That and Skype(Out).

Weed has an eBay storefront where I snagged some Tosh for $1.50 in the Fat Tail. 

But its a .wma?  That doesn't play in any player.  And they are not on the Mac Network.

Confusing the Long Tail and the Technology Adoption Lifecycle

Scoble, my friend, I think you have confused two curves.  You don't get a long tail by taking the technology adoption lifecycle (a diffusion of technology adoption segmented by standard deviations from innovators to early adopters to chasm to early majority to late majority to laggards over time), by folding it in half and paying attention to the skinny leftover pigtail.  One is the diffusion of a technology product by psychodemographic profile, one a diffusion of products by volume.

Microsoft, Apple and Google focused on innovators first.  Google makes money through the long tail by arbitraging network economics.  Microsoft doesn't grok wikis, no comment.  Apple is still for innovators, that's why we pay them more.  The Tablet PC will never be for the long tail, its for the 20%, but it hasn't crossed the chasm. 

Once you grasp the long tail, you discover markets and users that didn't exist because search and transaction costs were too high.  All those things people thought you couldn't make money from, but, suprise, they are, like social software...that's the long tail.

The eBay Way of Giving

A rare interview in BusinessWeek on the Omidyar Network and their unique philanthropic model:

..."I don't see why we ought to make an artificial distinction that says for-profit is all about making money and only nonprofit is about helping people," says Omidyar in an interview in the library of the network's offices, which sit amid the thrift shops and antique stores in blue-collar Redwood City, Calif.

What influenced Omidyar most in this decision was the inspiration he took from watching eBay users learn to trust 125 million total strangers. Disabled people on public assistance turned into self-supporting entrepreneurs; Guatemalan villagers started selling their handwoven wares to people on Park Avenue. Says Omidyar: "You have to ask yourself, is it really true that business can only be about making money? And is it really true that if you want good things to happen in a community it has to be through a nonprofit?"...

Before a bunch of entrepreneurs who only produce borderline social goods flood them with business plans, a modest warning.  They are not giving anything away.  The level of due diligence they applied to an investment in Socialtext was on par with a later stage venture investment.  Part of what works with their model is applying private equity discipline to drive effectiveness.

MIM vs. SMS

With respect to my friends like Joi who believe that Mobile IM (MIM) will surpass SMS, because of benefits like presence, I have to disagree. 

Media selection theory suggests that replacing an adopted modality takes time and even then the old modality remains.  Unless the costs force it to, IMHO, as saturation of advertising and other forms of spam produce group flight (read: email -> RSS).

Presence can be a social construct when the tool doesn't make it explicit.  You can message someone to say you are late, or message someone else who knows who you are holding up.

And besides, in some places they use SMS more than the web.

The side note to this point is that while traveling in Europe, SMS was my favorite mode to keep in touch with my wife, although it did wake her up once.  What's nice about the Treo is they use a chat-like interface for SMS to group threads.  They are all just messages.

Democratic Ukraine

It may have been the Baltic States that started the Former Soviet Union on the path towards independence an democracy, but Ukraine demanded it with passion.  In the first democratic election, turnout was 90%. 

Now election results are in doubt and there is talk of a coup.  It doesn't help that Putin tried to appoint the incument through endorsement. Many Ukrainians, particularly in the more urban west, will see this as a fight for independence, not just democracy.  This revolt will not die.

London Blogger Dinner

Perhaps the best time I had last week in London was a blogger dinner hosted by Alan and Lee.  Great conversations.  You can check out My Pics, James', Dave's and Beth's.

I hope to return the favor as folks cross the pond.

Lunch with Linnar

I had lunch with Linnar Viik, the "father of the Estonian internet" in Tallinn the other week.  Linnar has played a key role in the public, private, non-profit and academic sectors.  I knew him when he had a company that worked with me to develop the President's website.

As we sat down, Linnar said he had to put some money in the parking meter.  I expected him to get up, but instead he fiddled with his phone and said, "done."  That's when I knew things have changed more than it appears since I last visited.  40% of parking meter payments are made this way. What's more, he whipped out a iBook and took advantage of the free wifi (everwhere) to show me some great stuff his companies and students had developed.

His main current occupation is with the IT College he founded, which pragmatically trains 500 developers and administrators.  Linnar has also been active in eGovernment, beginning with the Tiger Leap program that ambitiously brought the Internet to every single school and has played a role in advancing e-government.

Linnar is actively involved with mobile technologies with MobiSolutions, a market outreach of Estonian students who as early as 1999 implemented mobile voting as spectator event for conferences and mobile  interactivity for live entertainment events as Depeche Mode and Elton John. Among the things his companies have done is a group blog for Hello Kitty in Japan that lets users message and audioblog from their mobile devices to create a shared voicemail.

Check out the demo video of Kick Ass Kung Fu, a student collaboration:

Kick Ass Kung-Fu is an immersive game installation that transforms computer gaming into a visual, physical performance like modern dance or sports. The game lets you experience Kung-Fu movie action and aesthetics by merging the real and the virtual with a perceptive user interface.

Sony is practically giving away video sensor Eyetoys ($50 including a game for the PS2), expect this interface to grow in use.  This, of course, kicks a little more ass.  Plus, people outside the gaze of the system can contribute by sending commands via SMS to manipulate virtual objects.

Being an innovator in a small country comes with a responsibility broader than your own private interest.  Linnar has accepted this from day one and has played a big part in advancing his society.  Its a model we could all learn from, as while you may not come from a small country you can advance your local community and have fun along the way.

Global Bloogel

Its fantastic that Blogger has gone multilingual.  An internationalized blogging platform that is localized in 9 languages will have tremendous impact (Socialtext is internationalized so far, btw).  But this is Google, which the world increasingly trusts as its knowledge base, and is doing great things, but you have to wonder what can be done about language discrimination.

Its less a matter for Blogger, but with Google, small languages will not be supported when development is driven by market forces alone.  Regulated development would of course be disaster.  But if there is an area to call for open source in search this is it.  Enabling localization, and perhaps even machine translation, according to social incentives could bring our world together in ways we cannot design. 

Then again, if vertical information assembly (coding) isn't open on a global platform, we always have the horizontal.

Trust and Transactions

At dinner tonight I had an interesting conversation about the difference between Americans and Europeans.  One theory put forth is that Americans focus on transaction volume and efficiency while Europeans focus on the strength of relationships.  With enough transactions you gain economies.  With trust underpinning transactions, you gain similar economies.  Its hard to say which system is "better." 

In other words, in the US its easier to transact with strangers and more deals get done.  In Europe people invest in people, usually when there is a strong social context.  Anglo cultures have a dearth of social capital, which makes the UK an anomaly.  There isn't the same quarterly pressure to transact, but there is a level of transaction efficiency which combined with language and cultural affinity makes it an easy entry point for American countries. 

This dearth of social capital is part of the reason that social networking has exploded in the US and UK.  But something else is at play.  Part of the transaction efficiency in the US is that social networks are more transparent to begin with.  You can get a sense of the community you want to deal with through a modicum of research.  Unlike in other cultures where money is a bit older and networks are more familiar if you are part of the family.  Its not just that gaining trust takes more time, but learning who to trust is structurally more complex.

Global Recession

Its great that you can travel to and within Europe for pennies this time of year, but when they are converted to pence its another thing.  Dan points to the Dollar's slide relative to the Euro at record levels as market judgement of what Bush holds for us.  At the same time, European and Asian economies seem to be faltering in recovery.  Inflation is becoming a real problem because of commodity prices (energy), particularly in the US. 

I'm mostly posting this as a note to self about when my sentiment changed about the global economy.  I think we are heading into a global recession and I hope I can look back on this post and find I was wrong.

Embracing Diversity

Today I had the opportunity to visit a high school in Tensta, just outside Stockholm, as an excursion of a workshop.  Its known as a poor neighborhood with an unusual high ethnic mix.  The architecture reminded me of Soviet construction.

But what's happening here is an interesting experiment in embracing diversity and turning a problem into an opportunity.  They have purposely increased the level of diversity by including exchange students from such places as a private school in Long Island.  They are redesigning the physical space to include a better environment for a shift in curriculum to include more group work.  They are also providing laptops to all students.

The results so far are encouraging, but this kind of change management takes 4-7 years to truly measure.  When away from the tour group, I witnessed the cafeteria interaction which seemed the same as any west or east coast high school in the US.  Just kids from all backgrounds goofing off and being real friends.  Aside from the anecdotal stolen laptop, the kids of course took to the technology in constructive ways (despite their attempts to lock them down to prevent file sharing).

Similar experiments are happening for urban renewal throughout the US.  But in white bread Scandinavia, and nationalist ethnic hate nearby, this is something to watch and learn from. 

First Snow

Arrived in Stockholm last night to their first snowfall.

I have a backlog of posts to write, best I have been able to muster is moblogging.

The Speed of Language

Academics will tell you that language not only evolves, but at an accelerated pace in smaller groups.  They should know, look to any arcane discipline for multi-syllabic excess.  Or just read on with blogs and podcasting and whatever else we invent and adopt tomorrow.

This presents a problem for linguists and search engineers.  Estonia is a small country of 1.5 million residents who have preserved their language despite English, Russian and Finnish.  Language changes so fast that my wife has to make a point of explicitly asking her friends about new cool words.  Now imagine engineering a translation engine in this context.  The market for the product is relatively small, uh, by definition.  There are no authoritative sources for what is new.  What you define can be an artifact of history by the time its enshrined in code. 

Now there is Old Estonian, in which many epic tales were written like Kalev, and New Estonian, the formal modern language.  They barely resemble each other, an evidence of change.  At some point there needs to be a release numbering system for small languages 2.0.

Smaller languages don't have the benefit of Google Translate and Bablefish services that are bringing the world together faster than ever.  Some in Estonia have been working on this problem, first by measuring and identifying the speed of language.  The approach is to anonymously mine streams of SMS and other text traffic, isolate and measure new language.  In order to fund this core technology, some initial development was supported by PR and advertising firms, of similar value to new startup that track meme propogation.

Markets.  Conversations.  'Natch.

Globalization was supposed to gradually meld all languages and English was to rule the world.  This is partially true with the English-centric Internet.  Especially as the market of language flocks to liquidity, as Google and others are commoditizing language.  But the countervailing force is our desire in groups of all kinds to create our own language for sake of efficiency and expression.

Because we make markets in words these days there is an opportunity for public/private/non-profit sector collaboration to aid global understanding while supporting native languages.  Major Search companies have made an effort to localize which is directly in their market interest.  But I happen to believe that if you simply give greater relevance to native language search results you are not doing the world or user a favor.  It very well be that a blog post in Esperanto is exactly what you are looking for, today you will never know, and a long tail advertiser would be happy to help you along your way. 

But while those in the long tail of language invent their own at increasing pace, the top 20% homogenizes.  Foundations and eelemosynary individuals (philanthropic) could contribute to the development of, say, Google Translate between Estonian and English, but the fundraising cost and IP issues may never allow this to happen.

So for now, its the domain of smaller more nimble and perhaps self interested social entrepreneurs to do it themselves.  They will invent their own language, which you will surely be speaking one day.

Dinner in London

Care to join me and some great people in London for dinner November 16th?

Big and Small Tallinn

Further proof that Tallinn is the ultimate blend of a capital city and a small town. When I had two hours before a dinner, I strolled through Old-town to Nimeta Baar. Nimeta, or "No Name" is a Scottish expat bar I frequented some ten years ago and played on their soccer team when the ground wasn't frozen solid. Ran into an American who I probably last saw at the same bar. He had moved back to the States sometime in-between to work with a software company for a year and a half. What's great is his company let him move back to work remotely by broadband and help cover European time zones. Then ran into another American who originally came here on a business school exchange program and a Scot I knew who was just visiting as well. Somewhere around eighty percent of the expats I knew ten years ago are still here, for darn good reasons.

Apparently, despite the weather, I am here at a good time. Tourism exploded in recent years, and in the summer Old-town becomes a suburb of London or something. This summer should be even more extreme, with Easyjet.com offering $50 round trip tickets out of London and Berlin. Prices are noticeably different than ten years ago because of tourism, EU entry and uneven growth.

While Old-town has managed to curb development to retain its medieval feel, the changes in the Skyline and streets are dramatic. The good people are still largely the same and living a great life.

Microfiments

When in a hotel in Helsinki, Sonera's wifi service required you to pay by credit card by the hour for wifi. That doesn't sound so bad, except when your hour is up it terminates you without warning, say in mid-Skype. You have to fill in a form and your credit card info again. And again. And again. And...you get the idea.

Leaving Helsinki

Had a wonderful short trip in Helsinki. Was mostly work, although I did get to stroll through the City center in the dark. People often think that the Finnish and Estonians are a closed and cold people, but when you have gained their trust, they can be the warmest friends you could have. Possibly its because they live in cold climes, but its mostly a reflection of their history.

Estonia was caught on the wrong side of history for 50 years. A false line drawn by FDR, Stalin and Churchill at the close of WWII as a concession that turned a Scandinavian people into a Soviet colony. Actually, Estonia's history is marked as being between world powers with the fact that despite their roots as a people extend further back than almost any other culture (5,000 years), they have been occupied by the Russians, Germans, Swedes, Lithuanians repetitively. It will take years before the physchological impact of living within a system that turns even family members against each other. But there is a certain modesty that perhaps precedes the extension of trust that many cultures can learn from. Before regaining their independence, many hacked together antennas to receive Finnish TV signals, so when they had an opportunity for capitalism they knew what they wanted.

Finland had its own shocks to deal with. They have had to live with the threat of Soviet invasion during the same period, but also had to cede territory and war debt that burdened the economy. This burden forced significant changes from what was an agricultural nation into an industrial and now information age state. They had to develop their own military capabilities in absence of of explicit defense by the West. Today both nations require military service, mostly training they call a "walk in the woods," that has luckily remained peaceful.

Both nations have glommed on to technology as a path for the future and have some of the highest rates of internet and mobile penetration in the world. Again, this may be because its so cold. The view technology as a social mechanism to bring people together on dark nights and days.

Its an odd time to visit, even my wife from Estonia passed on the trip. Not just because of the weather, but because people have a yearly mood cycle that gets worse until Christmas and peaks on mid-summer's day. I am unsure what my brief trip to Tallinn, where I once called home, holds for me. But I am already awash with strong feelings as I recall the things I loved.

Perhaps the most disturbing scientific discovery I learned of this year makes me fear memories. Every time you recall the past you rewrite it, layering on some impressions from your current context. I treasure my memories, but oddly feel that when I use them I may loose as much as I gain. Sometimes I find myself even hesitating to take pictures as they frame what I will be able to recall so vividly.

Now neurotechnologies hold the distant promise of being able to have perfect memory. This of course may be undesireable, specifically if it is not able to block out memories of pain as a side effect, which is a wonderful attribute of how the mind works. But as the cognitive capability extends itself, the emotive capacity to process it needs to evolve as well.

For now, I'll risk my memories with fresh experience. Its been far too long.

Serendipilights

Just before I boarded the plane from London to Helsinki, I updated my Treo RSS newsreader.  I was reading Doc's post about how visible the Northern Lights (Look for Auroras NOW) were and then the captain of the plane said something about how he was dimming the lights and to look outside to the left.

Lo and behold, there were the Northern lights at 30,000 feet somewhere above Sweden.  Grabbed my camera and took a picture.

Then realized turning the flash off would be a good idea.

 

Ed points to the Flickr northernlights tag

Cal-IT

Cal-IT is the leading Europe-Silicon Valley technology event. Hosted by the State of California in association with the European Technology forumand produced by C-net, it brings select startups to meet potential European private and public sector customers, partners and investors. The format is a combination of a couple of primary session track, showcase company presentations and intensive back-to-back 1/2 hour meetings. Most of my time will be spent in meetings and providing a showcase, so I will not blog the whole event, but I thought I would blog the opening Keynote.

Barry Sedlik, Undersecretary, BTHA, State of California

Its called Cal-IT, not Oklahoma-IT or Arkansas-IT, for obvious reasons. Shwarzanegger due to come next year (apparently busy on a trade delegation to Japan). Talks of the need for reduced regulation, particularly for startups, specifically workers comp regulations which increase the cost of business. The ability to keep and attract the key asset of an IT business, its people. Housing costs in excess of $400k median costs makes it difficult to recruit. Governor's approach is to systemically address housing and transportation together. Trying to encourage onvergence of industries, such as the entertainment and aerospace/military for advanced visualization for example. Califronia is open for business, for technology the place to be. Basically, there isn't that much that he could say specifically, but you have to love his conculsion: Please take a look at these companies, buy their stuff, which will help put money in the tax register, something we need right now.

Eric Benhamou, Chairman of Palm Computing

I've had the opportunity to hear Eric talk at two other conferences before, usually on Palm. Eric also runs Benhamou Global Ventures The topic was the dynamics of the global IT industry for the past few years and looking forward. A journey from sharks to opportunities. Churchill: the opportunity behind every difficulty.

The Market shock. Short Palm and Long on 3com was a good trade when the market collapsed, but meant things were crazy. Most of the crash was in the telecom industry: wrong infrastructure capacity and products. Led to a tarnishing of the image of technology and luddites have had their revenge. IT managers focused on cost reduction, less innovation concerns not only in large companies but with VCs. Started a movement of offshoring and outsourcing, driven by cost reduction concern. Most who outsourced and offshored for cost reduction, but the best result is opening markets. In the process of close encounter with these markets we discovered an emergence of a large middle class eager to consume.

The Enron shock. A breach in trust. Dramatically altering a way of life for public companies, compliance reform (SarBox, led to a raft of new companies), running companies requires competence.

The Terrorism shock. Added insecurity, desire to behave conservatively, transaction costs in general (not just lines in airports, privacy/security tradeoff, need for every company to contribute resources to the effort). The rise in terrorism coincides with the rise of cyberterrorism, created opportunities, but changed how people viewed their IT assets.

Beyond the shocks, new equilibrium and prospects for growth. Prospects for enterprise IT spending are on their way up. A week ago, Gary Beech survey 8.7% spending increase. Last 12 months of the survey have shown incremental increase. Some segments are going through double digit growth, some with shrink

Cyclical upgrade of our IT investments. First since Y2K. This time, faster 1G switched inseead of 100Mbps. Shifting to voice and video.

Security undergoing dramatic growth. Shift from broad based solutions to special purpose purchase. Fragmented landscape and a long time until security infrastrutures get put in plac 2003 80% more attacks than in 2002, in 2004 should be as steep in rate of increase. Budgets will increase 40-50%.

Storage not just for compliance, but full information economy requires. Network attached. Fundamental change with i-scuzzy to allow disks to be network attached.

WAN optimization. LAN and the core of our public networks have been optimized, while WAN lagged. Pressure to accelerate applications across WAN links.

Insatiable appetite of the consumer has powered us for the last four years, as everything has become digital. Now mostly broadband connected. Continued growth because we are increasingly mobile.

Mobility and communication are the two most foremost characteristics of IT going forward. This year we will have found more Smartphones produced than PDAs. Selling more Treos than PDAs. Full music collection while on the go, iPod is a revolution, full solution that triggers a lifestyle change is becoming available. Consumption of digital music will be a $2B market in 2006, more through subscriptions (hello Podcasters!) than track purchase.

Carriers have suffered the most from cap-ex debauchery. Used to spend 15-17% of budget on cap-ex, 25-30% during the boom on the wrong things. This created opportunities for others, and just now recovering, now they are investing in infrastructure again for two reasons: Triple play (voice, video and data) & Wireless infrastructures. Wifi, WiMax, WiMedia has broadbase grassroots acceptance, integrated by standard bodies. End point cost is already paid for. Phones will support it, carriers don't have to worry about it. They have a 10x advantage.

Innovation is back. In large companies, but mostly in small companies like the ones presenting here. Back in a different way, the business models have changed, the geographies of interest have shifted outside the valley. China and India can teach you about adoption. Good balance betwen top and bottom line growth. Better business people and entrepreneurs.

Why don't we feel better about this? Danny Camelon (sp?), psychology of economic agents. Losses loom longer than gains. Sometimes its good to take a step back and look at where we have come from as the prospects look better today.

One of the best moments of the conference for me so far was talking with Eric last night. Especially when he demoed his Treo 650 for me. Compared to my Treo 600, the camera is substantially better, keyboard more usable and Bluetooth is supported.

Buying Differences Between the US & Europe
* Moderator: Allyson Stewart-Allen
* William Archer, AT&T
* Mike Kaul, diCarta
* Don LeBeau, Aruba Networks
* JP Rangaswami, Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein
* Lee Roberts, FileNet

What do European clients value most? Is it location, length of years in business, price/value, IP, marketing?

William: combination of factors, not unlike the US. they value scale of capabilities, presence infrastructure, depth of capabilities. Value IP when its applied.

Mike: as a smaller company, the question is if you can support the software? Does the software accommodate how things work differently here? Slight reluctance to be the first one to adopt. Just because it has been done 10 times in the US, doesn't mean it works here.

Lee: Europe is heterogeneous. Wants lots and lots of pilots.

Don: Relationships. When building Cisco worldwide in early 90s he lived here for a year as a message to the market and to learn the market. Certain trust developed. Awareness of the need to be present.

Lee: 80% of technology migrates from US to UK to Europe. SAP is an example of an exception.

William: willingness here to try some different things. Whereas IP and managed services are hot topics in the US, receptivity to try and invest in services that we see in the US. Engaging the network industry in more than connectivity, but services. Opportunity to extend your proposition.

JP: While people have indicated heterogeneity and risk e, there is a growing sense that things are changing. A removal of two classes that stood in the way of the buyer, used to be reseller and consultant driven. Can you support it? If you can, come and show us, then lets work on a pilot. Difference is less willingness to accept hype. We are a much larger show me state. The intermediate class is being driven out.

Lee: Rate of absorption varies by country. Interrelated but different markets. In the US its the land of marketing and hype. Here there is less hype and more delivery. Customers focused on facts.

Don: Historically relationships were with intermediaries. Some of that influence is declining. Channel or distribution partners still matter, but it requires more of direct presence. When you win over these relationships they are longer lasting.

Mike: Getting established in Europe has been more challenging because we are not the incumbent. We have learned by evolving, have to have presence here. Have to have people familiar with the markets and customers. Genuine investment in infrastructure and presence. Element of a global firm that has invested here and is committed to being here. Sensitive to things like pace, cultural dimensions.

Lee: 35% of Global 1000s are European, a different market that needs to be addressed differently.Companies are demanding not just the software, but the service being delivered directly themselves. A major shift from 5 years ag

JP: Markets are conversations, many times between nationalities. Once we allow for disintermediation aspect, people in Europe require more patience. If you are a startup in Europe, only trade sale was SAP. People need time, not because they are dumb, but their own transitions. Consumption model isn;'t entirely stable yet. The outcome may be more tangible and longer term That patience isn't always present.

Mike: The Show Me in the US and Europe is still based on relationships. Time spent with you and confidence in you is just as much of a factor in lots of dinners and more scotch than I had cared to drink to close our first deals. We are smaller and deal with F100s. They say our software works, but a certain sense that I need to look you in the eye and hold you responsible. Building and retaining is hard for a 150 person company because its resources. Everyone wants the CEO to be the executive sponsor, but others need to take responsibility. I have to make it seem there is an entorage behind me, but there isn't. I can only choose so many relationships.

Lee: Not that much of a difference between larger and small, European companies want to be more conservative, but when they make a bet it gets sticky. A rate of time of progression. Financial strength and viability. Reducing number of vendors. Not a radical difference between countries either.

Don: Retaining customers has to do with service and support. You win loyalty when there are problems. The harder it is to respond, the better it is when you do. Tech wins you the relationship, the support builds the relationships.

JP: Europe is constructed with a large number of relatively small market. Negative inference of the market can spread. Speed at which non-delivery spreads. Reputation through delivery.

Don: Bootstrapping. High end product with a unique support requirement led us to look for partners that are an extension of the service and support model. Otherwise I have to replicate what others have. Partners with the local market to extend your presence

Mike: Grow the market or penetrate in partnership with customers that are in accordance with your strategy.

Don: Having local presence instead of trying to replicate your US sales culture in a local market. Can start in the UK and service other markets. Would be difficult to do that from France. But beyond the pilot organization, you need to build local presence and have them translate American requirements such as time cycles.

William: local, local, local. Demonstrate you are investing and committed. Every detail: collateral, using language, translation, presenting as a global firm or an appendage to a US firm, 4Ps.

Lee: Operate globally, think locally. US quarterly sales pressure needs to translate. Don't over extend yourself trying to be IBM when you are a startup. Over committing and under delivering is bad. Establish a beachhead.

JP: Historically the reliance on the partner and local footprint and channel, hardware required it. Today, I need merit to be the sale. I will find ways of consuming the merit. The accents of the people on the panel (5 US and an Indian) would not have happened five years ago. Consuming post Internet generation, what I am buying is merit. If something is good, you can change the rules. Make sure your product is great, everything else follows.

Mike: Centralized control and decentralized execution has to be balance, but as you expand globally its mostly the latter. In enterprise software, the complex sale and solution, bringing forth the merit is a difficult task. In the trenches is where it all works.

Question: If you were a company of 200 people in CA with one bridgehead possibility into Europe, where would you place that salesforce?

Mike: If not, UK, translate from Northern and Southern Europe

Lee: If manufacturing based solution, go to Germany, If more universal or horizontal, start in the UK as is traditional. What are you trying to sell and who is your target market.

Question: American advantage/disadvantage. The character of the company is more starkly visible. They wear their hearts on their sleeve.

JP: It is of value to me that I can understand the culture of the firm Company ethos helps select if the company is congruent with my objectives as much as my management styles. Relationship not just a contract. Easier with US companies.

On to meetings, may not blog much more about this event.

Exit Shock

The shock of exit poll data mid-voting in voter choice implied a Kerry lead moved the markets on November 2nd. The traditional media value chain had oligopolized exit polling to a single contractor. The end product enabled competition between a handful of outlets to compete on risk-taking analysis of their call (the shock of early calls four years ago on public opinion told them to focus on their models) and a blend of entertainment and crisis communication. Each owned their broadcast distribution leaving little competition and innovation.

What they didn't anticipate is bloggers arbitraging their market of information, by acquiring what was scarce to replicate and distribute without cost. The economies of speed, span and scale blew right through the proprietary editorial gateways of traditional media. Expect the next election to have us focused on citizen to citizen polling, and the media business diversifying its information portfolio. Regardless of if you think the result this time was good or ill, it happened -- twice.

The exit poll on voter rationale framed the mandate. "The top issue (21%) was "moral values"; 78% of those who cared about that went for Bush, 19% for Kerry."

Jeff Jarvis:

First, the exit polls are proven now to be utterly, laughably discredited.

Second, know that in polls such as this, who the hell is not going to say that "moral values" are important? If you say that taxes are more important than "moral values" then you'll fear that Jesus is going to come into the polling place smashing the tables of the vote counters.

Third, if they'd asked what "moral values" means, they would have found a nation divided; it's a vague as air.

Jeff goes on to discuss moral values, the role of government, separation of church and state, Postrel's point of duty-based voting, and puts the liberty back in libertarian and liberal

I believe until the left (and center) can define its moral values, at this point -- pragmatic principles -- Bush will have his moral mandate.

The other shrinking half of voters now are faced with how to live under mandatory means. Some will fight, some will flee. Some will remain undecided, or at worst, indifferent.

Political exit has people running to Canada, where we are warmly invited. At a certain point of its a rational choice to be a political refuge. This is why our nation has harbored so many, why at will employment is humane and conversely, why we should value resignation by leaders.

But fighting, without obstructing, on the principles we stand and within the rule of law is our democratic and American political duty.

Looking back at what just happened, barring media reform, what's really at stake is the structure of parties. Bush won on message with top-down imposition. Kerry lost with outsourced organization targeting messages at polled affinity groups.

Note clearly that Kerry did not loose with grassroots self-organization. That energy faded into entropy with only its attention economics left in an active state. The Bottom-up base never had its day.

David Weinberger:

Who would have thought that such a young technology [blogs] would rise so fast to such prominence?...

1. Let's not let the energy of these new democratic muscles were flexing just dissipate; let's keep at it;

2. Blogging the truth about your life and being there to inspire or give permission to other people to be do that, or simply giving them the encouragement to be BRAVE and try things is what the blogging infrastructure we're building is all about;

3. We need to study what happened with all that momentum towards citizen democracy in the Dean campaign, understand why it wasn't channeled into electing Kerry and not let that ever happen again.

The Kerry Campaign was a failure of middlespace. The Dean Campaign broadened participation with conviction. In a moment of weakness, the Democratic party co-opted it into what they thought they could manage and package. All social movements dissipate, some connections remain, but without renewal they are easy to suppress by appealing to a more consistent and empowered national identity.

Now, in a shock, the party will revisit closing the ranks under a message with conviction. The good thing is this will give some think tanks some good work and we may develop some language to explain ourselves. Party organization is another potentially more open matter. The leadership has left the building and those that can build a following, nay, a network, have an opportunity.

Shock is good, as it gives us new history to model and it prompts decisive action.

Individuals react poorly to shock. It clouds their decision making as overreactive fear prevents taking risks. This is why it critical for traders who deal with turbulence regularly to separate their cognitive and emotive selves. Entrepreneurs learn from failure, make do with resources and experiment at the margin.

Groups can react well to shock. One time shock like 9/11 provides and enemy to rally around, develops social capital (parlayed adeptly by Rove into political capital) and actually strengthen communities.

Shock is not good is when it is sustained. The seminal field work with an Appalachian community dealing with a dam burst and Yale Sociologist Kai Erikson's subsequent work, showed how sustained tragedy tears apart social fabric. I have always wondered how much the difference between common shock and sustained suffering is a matter of the pattern of pain inflicted, or if communities adapt.

I fundamentally believe that democracies, markets and organizations learn from what you could call mistakes or fat tails or exceptions. I am optimistic that will make us better, the question is when.

Homeland

Four years from now, in all likelihood, abortion will be banned, there will be a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, stem cell research will be outlawed and the right to privacy will have no underpinning in federal policy. We will have regressed our civil rights while our society and science fails to advance. Theocrats will swiftly end the separation of church and state.

Regressive taxation, health care and other policies will widen the income gap. Not only making working class Americans poorer, but harming our longer term economic interest.

But social and economic issues were only campaign issues in disguise, covered in a shroud of fear.

Carl Rove masterfully awoke the nationalist strain of America. He made foreign policy a domestic issue in the heartland with a single word, Homeland. This isn't your mother or father's land, it strikes at the heart of all your fears of change. Turning fear into fight against devils and evil. Solidarity trumps social issues and economic self-interest. This was a stunning defeat not just for the left, but a mislead center.

So I'm leaving the country.

Not expatriating quite yet, however tempting to give up, but going to Europe this weekend. And I will have a lot of explaining to do. Europeans understand nationalism and have largely resisted its temptations for some time now. Now I wonder if if its Europe's time for manifest destiny of social progression as an economic superpower. After all, they do not have over-extension of empire and a defense burden on their economies, so Europe can continue to peacefully address structural issues of their economies. Perhaps the war economy will catch up with the US and global economic competitiveness will be a domestic issue again.

The details are yet to be known about how votes were counted, how ineffective the outsourcing of the ground war by the Democratic party relative to other forms of organization, and why youth and blacks didn't get to the polls. More importantly, why doesn't the left have a base?

I have faith, nay, conviction that Americans in the Heartland support civil rights, liberties and well-being when they are not framed as Northeastern Liberalism. Progressives have moral values, we just fail to communicate them. Perhaps it will take a sustained attack on our women and our wallets to open minds to change and find ourselves. There we may find a base to actually mobilize.

Change doesn't have to wait for elections. While the polity is engaged there is an opportunity to enable civic discourse and sustained pressure on those on power. Issue by issue. Building a base is not an exercise for every four years, it requires turning voters into activists so you can count on them when it matters most. The only hope for politics in America is participation.

Bah

Eneken's First Vote

Seven years ago my wife began the process of becoming a citizen with a voice. Today she cast her first vote. She emigrated from Estonia with me, a place where the right to vote had just been earned at grave cost, and waded through a quagmire of bureaucracy and waiting periods to do her part. Seven years is a great deal more than the person who looked at the hour long line near the close of the polls and turned around to the temporary comforts of home.

No matter what happens when the ballots are counted and adjudicated, today is a simple victory of personal democracy for our family.

We waited an hour to have the choice of voting on a paper ballot or touchscreen. Part of the wait was because one of the touchscreens had failed early in the morning, but the poll worker said it should have the 80 votes recorded. About 5% of the approximately 600 (~85% turnout) that had voted had elected for paper to assure their vote was counted. Perhaps people were aware of their rights to vote the accountable way, as there was a big cardboard voting. But its the Silicon Valley, and those gleaming screens, the one that worked, are so tempting. Especially after the wait.

My camera and questions did get a grumble from a poll worker about poll watchers, but I don't blame her. Lots of people have their suspicions, and you can't blame them.

Its a sad thing that my wife will have to wait to see the result of her participation in the greatest democracy in the world. We will not know the real result for some time.

Wikis in PR

PR Week has piece on using wikis in PR, including signs you might want to consider a wiki:

• A press release went out with an error because the deadline was approaching and a change wasn't implemented
  
• Your clients look for you to be an early adopter of networking and social technology coming through the pipeline
  
• You often have projects that require the constant feedback of multiple users in different countries
  
• You've deleted the 20th office-wide e-mail by noon, and not one has had information pertaining to you
  
• Your intranet is too bulky and expensive for your needs

I fundamentally believe the role of PR is changing because of social software, a disruption felt earlier than other sectors because information is their business. Employees of client organizations have always had the means to communicate directly with the outside world, with email it became much easier, and blogs provide persistent amplification.

The new opportunity for PR is to serve more than management and information officers. Blogs don't mean the ability to sell new crisis communications practices. They mean a responsibility to work deeper in the organization to provide media training and help navigate appropriate implicit or explicit policies. Of course, this media training isn't about staying on message. Its helping people understand the implications of their messages while establishing a backchannel of conversation within the enterprise about how it relates to the outside world.

Vote Link

Technorati is tracking vote links.

Here's my vote, for John Kerry.

And my anti-link: I oppose Bush

Vote early, vote often.

Election Eve

I find myself wondering what more I could have done. Somehow this election connected with more people, more deeply, than any in recent memory. We are faced to live up to our choices, which makes us better even when we are left without one. This was supposed to be the Presidential election I engaged while doing more than living a life. Heck, it was, did a fair amount and, but then I dropped out of the race. I still have the one obligation to live up to as a citizen, vote.

Somehow I was still connected through friends, blogging and writing. However, the Kerry Bumper Sticker I affixed on my PowerBook alongside Liz Lawley the other week has elicited more of a reaction than the best of my writings. But reaction is never the point.

Once at a Dean meetup I talked about how the influence of social networks on votes, how making decisions in a social context is more apt to sway minds than when people are isolated. Then its even hard to get them to the polls in the first place. But then again, we are never alone, we can even pretend a broadcast is our friend. Then the election becomes who do we dream of having a beer with.

I would like to think that a strong undercurrent of who rises to the top tomorrow is directly tied to how the Dean Campaign engaged a diverse group early. That the massive failure produced learnings that could be directly applied and latent network potential.

With the race so close, the silliest explanation for who wins may apply. Maybe a group of University of Michigan alums were at a Football party last fall when the keg went dry, they recounted recent arguments with Big Ten rivals and slowly burnt into discussion of politics and that Dean T-shirt Andy was wearing. They had read each other's blogs, were generally more inclined for Kos over Cosmo. A couple of meetups left them feeling good about themselves, and then the crowd drew drastically thin with only one barbaric yalp above the din. Andy went to spring break in Fort Lauderdale and NASCAR with his cousin (T-shirt almost got him hanged). The TV hummed with conventions and debates, but they were equally glued and conversant. Come time to vote, a little IM chatter, and it was the difference.

Meanwhile, my opinions are as influenced by those abroad as when I lived there. Sure, locally, we have our occasional mountain lion. But somehow we have messed up the world so much that our friends have turned foe. Going to Europe next week only means with certainty: (a) there won't be final election results until I come back, (b) I'll be apologizing for my country and (c) I have faith in the foreign service backed by a self-correcting democracy.

People on The Network that transcends nationalism and fights the boundaries we draw needlessly are my compatriots. Until I peer through a keyhole that is wiredless overlaid through my optical overlay that stimulates the neuro-prosthetic to prompt to meet and converse efficiently while leveraging geographical precision of history and swimming in social context with happy happy joy joy, my network will remain diverse and implicit. Till then, my relations are more effectively augmented across distance.

Being an entrepreneur, I shifted earlier than many from the problem at hand to anticipating the next one. Emergent Democracy got its field trial with the Dean Campaign and worked until the experiment was contaminated. The ground war was an early victory subsequently overshadowed by the air war. New voices were raised and we have become the media. But directing a campaign of change has to do more than raise money, it has to put it to good use and grow the right network. The next opportunity is to help government reform itself through participation, regardless of tomorrow's decisions, for every decision that follows.

There is a process, its just a matter of connecting enough people to it. Connecting participation to the levers of individual and institutional pluralism. If you are voting tomorrow, you can be satisfied that you have fulfilled your base democratic obligation. But you don't have to wait for a referendum to to be a citizen. Regardless who wins tomorrow, you can sway the decisions they make.

Demanding a Count Ability

Dan Gillmor points out that my county has instructed pollworkers not to inform voters of their right to a paper copy of their electronic v