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September 17, 2004

Mobile Majority

This is one kind of political speculation worthy of engagement. What if political polls were false because they failed to sample the coming mobile majority? The answer to this question contains a skew. Let's figure it out.

Update: Here's a great summary of the issue, via Dave Winer. Samples are skewing right, 5% of phones (and growing) are cell-only, cold-calling cell phones is against the law. With unrepresentative samples, purchased call lists, closed models, statistical massaging and more its hard to say why you would trust polls today and its going to get worse.

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