So Dean has lost Iowa, but he will get another chance to win that state. Jeff points to exit polls and says: Kerry has strong support among those who support the war. Ditto Edward and Gephardt. In short: The war is not a winning issue. Said it before. Say it again. The war is not the war...Dean stands out on nothing but the war. Jeff is right, its not the war itself.
If there is a way to describe the dominant issue of the presidential campaign, its the War Economy. The most common criticism I run into about Dean's electability is that the war is a declining meme, especially after Saddam's capture (pundits are calling the last month change in Iowa as attributable to it). But whether or not bodybags move voters, the war will have lasting impact beyond the travesty in and of itself.
The war has a cost that matters to the heartland, and everyone else, and its economic. The war will bring the deficit to 5% of GDP. For the second quarter of last year, 60% of GDP was attributable to military spending. The war makes 5% more money be put into the economy than is being taken out by tax revenue. Bush has counted on military-Keynesian policy to fuel economic growth.
It should be obvious that peace is a better stimulus than war. James Galbraith warned shortly after 9/11 that military-Keynesian wasn't a viable policy because the US was not in a position to stimulate:
...the analogy to World War II mobilization is also misleading. Before World War II, the United States was the world's creditor nation; it enjoyed energy self-sufficiency and did not run a large trade deficit. None of these conditions now hold. As a result, a high-order Keynesian response will have global financial repercussions. To finance a major military or domestic economic effort, or both, risks driving down the dollar on world capital markets.
While the economy is in recovery, it is a jobless recovery. Bush's economic record, let alone its favoritism according to Brad De Long, is a failure in potential:
But it is clear that the American economy could have grown much faster: the Bureau of Labor Statistics's household survey reports a drop in the employment/population ratio from 64.4% in 2000 to 62.3% today, the BLS's establishment survey reports a decline in nonfarm payroll employment from 131.8 million in 2000 to 130.2 million today. The story of the U.S. economy since 2000 is one of a remarkably unfavorable business-cycle outcome--a remarkably large shortfall of economic growth relative to potential--indeed.
Dean provided popular differentiation on the issue of the war. If you are reading this, you already know his other issues, values and potential to represent us. But the larger populace has yet to learn this. Dean just gained the position he needs for the other primaries and the process of voter education. He lost some competitors and regained his challenger positioning that allows the media to focus on his positives.
We know the war was conceieved and executed as a travesty. Now we have the opportunity to learn what the war means. For our economy, the efficiency of a growing government, shattering of international ties, abandonment of domestic issues and our civil liberties.
The Dean Campaign should congratulate itself on finishing in the top three, a traditional position for success. They know its a long hard fight, but don't forget how far they have come, literally from nowhere to emerging to prominance. On to New Hampshire -- and the opportunity for more people to learn more about a great leader on many issues.
UPDATE: Much of the above was drafted before Iowa. It is suggesting the message component of blogs beating TV and how blogs alone are not enough. Also, see Doc's coverage.
